OMAHA (DTN) -- Some early stages of drought could affect yields in some Iowa counties, but the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour still forecasts a strong crop yield that will be among the state's best years in corn production, while soybean yield could slip slightly.

DTN projects Iowa will have the highest corn yield in the country at 214 bushels per acre (bpa). Iowa also is projected to have the second-highest soybean yield in the country at 61.8 bpa. Grundy County in north-central Iowa looks like the state's corn yield winner at the moment, projected at 234.3 bpa. For soybeans, Sioux County in northwest Iowa is projected to lead the state with 69.1 bpa.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 214.0 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 223.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 213.8 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 61.8 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 62.3 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 62.3 bpa

Iowa led the country in total corn production last year at 2.77 billion bushels. NASS pegged Iowa's corn yield at 210 bpa, which was the second-highest yield among major corn-producing states, trailing only Illinois. Iowa was second in the country in soybean production and yield last year at 595.6 million bushels and 63.5 bpa, respectively.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a large swath of western Iowa is experiencing either abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) conditions. Last year at this time, there were no drought concerns in the state, but Iowa crops were hit with a derecho on July 29 last year.

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, the state of Iowa has been on the edge of just about everything throughout the season so far.

"The state has dealt with drought, flooding, heat, cold and everything in between," he said. "The only true consistency has been the lack of rainfall in the northwest quarter of the state. Though many weather systems have been moving through the state since the beginning of March, that corner has generally been left out. It hasn't been completely dry, but the refusal for above-normal rain to fall there has probably led to some concerns."

In general, the rest of the state has done well with the variable conditions, Baranick said. Rains have been frequent, even if the amounts have been below normal at times. And though some areas of flooding developed, the overall heavy rain events haven't caused too much damage either.

"Severe weather has been at a 'normal-ish' pace," he added. "Overall, the state was in decent shape heading into August, especially with the widespread rain event on the last two days of July."

MARKET COMMENTARY

The "King of Corn" looks to hold the crown for another year with another strong crop in the making for Iowa, albeit projected to be lower than 2025, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

"To begin August, 80% of Iowa's crop is rated good or excellent, compared to 85% a year ago, which supports this year's tour findings calling for a modest falloff in production," he noted.

Montgomery said the 2026 Digital Yield Tour forecasts an Iowa soybean yield just slightly below the previous five-year average. USDA reported that 78% of Iowa's soybean crop was thought to be in good or excellent condition to begin August, compared to 80% a year ago.

"The northwest portion of Iowa, in particular, will be an area of interest with periods of heat and dryness through the growing season thus far," he said. "Based on conditions heading into August, a strong crop is expected, though still a decline from last year's record output."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Ben Riensche, Buchanan County, Iowa:

Riensche farms mainly in Black Hawk and Buchanan counties in northeast Iowa, where he expects he's looking at one of the three or four best crops he's ever produced for both corn and soybeans.

"I'm going to say this will not be our record for either the corn or soy crops, but it's probably in the top four for both," he said.

The crop got in the ground on time, but it did lose some stand with population reductions in both the corn and soybeans. Still, Riensche said the crop has avoided oppressive heat and gotten moisture "teetering on excess."

"Eastern Iowa has been blessed with rainfall," he said. "There's not much we can do between now and harvest other than hope and pray. The crop is well watered."

Bushel-wise, Riensche said he is pleased, but he noted, "The cost side is out of control with inputs."

Riensche added his crops were devoid of any disease pressures despite not spending money this summer on fungicide applications.

"We're skipping that step as a cost saving because we don't see enough disease pressure to go in," he said.

Black Hawk County is projected to yield 212.9 bpa for corn, about 7 bushels above the RMA five-year average for the county. Soybean yields for Black Hawk County are projected at 61.5 bpa, about a bushel above the five-year average.

In Buchanan County, the corn yield is projected at 214.8 bpa, which is down slightly -- less than 1 bushel -- from the five-year average. Soybean yields are forecast at 62.2 bpa, which is slightly below the five-year average.

-- Gentry Sorenson, Iowa State University Extension field agronomist:

The north-central counties of Buena Vista, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Hancock, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Pocahontas and Winnebago, where Sorenson works, have received less rain than other parts of the state overall. That's a change from last year when too much rain during the summer was a concern for producers.

"We're a bit behind on rainfall. Just from April 11 until now, my area is 2 to 7 inches behind the average," Sorenson said. "We've missed a lot of the rainfall that the rest of the state has received."

At the same time, Sorenson said there was more early-season damage from hail through the nine counties where he works. There have been a few counties hit with strong winds, but the damage was not as widespread as last year's derecho.

With a large area in some early stages of drought, the heat waves in July started to stress the crops in north-central and western Iowa counties.

"In the sandier soils is where we're starting to see some drought stress. The heavier soils that retain a little more water; those soils have been OK for the most part so far," Sorenson said. "But we'll need some rainfall to kind of keep this crop going until harvest."

A saving grace, it seems, across north-central and most of Iowa is that farmers and agronomists report little disease pressure. Southern rust has not been a problem this year for the corn crop as compared to last year, for instance.

"We've had maybe just a little bit of southern rust come in here very recently, but it's pretty late in the season, and it's in very, very light amounts," Sorenson said.

Tar spot is also limited, he added.

Despite some drier conditions in some counties, the nine counties Sorenson covers are still projected to produce corn yields ranging from 206.5 bpa in Dickinson County up to 223.5 bpa in Winnebago County.

For soybeans, DTN projects Winnebago (64.7 bpa), Kossuth (65.3 bpa) and Hancock (66.7 bpa) counties will all outperform the state average yield.

-- Jeff Jorgenson, Fremont County, Iowa:

Jorgenson farms in the southwest corner of the state where conditions were hot and dry through July. But Fremont and surrounding counties saw both a break in the heat and some heavy rains at the end of the month. Jorgenson said the rains were spotty, but most of his farm got roughly 3 inches of precipitation across most of his fields. The temperatures also dialed back from 100-plus-degree days.

"That rain finished our corn," he said. "We were worried about whether we were going to have light test weights or some of those issues, but that helped us finish the corn."

Jorgenson said his corn crop looks good, though the stand isn't as strong as it has been in the past. The crop population ranged from 29,000 to 31,000 plants per acre.

"We didn't have any of those ideal stands where you plant 34,000 and end up with 33,000, that type of deal," he explained. "So, we're a little short on stand. The crop looks good, though, and the pollination's good. I don't see any real issues with it."

There are no real disease pressures in the area, either. Last year, crops got hit harder in the area, mainly because of southern rust. Jorgenson noted there were a lot more helicopters and planes flying over the fields in July, adding fungicide applications.

"Last year, there were guys who had 80 to 100 bushels less than someone who sprayed," Jorgenson said. "I had a neighbor who didn't put fungicide on, didn't want to spend the money. It was an 80-bushel difference. People wanted to get out ahead of it this year."

Tar spot remains an issue. The Crop Protection Network reported that nearly every county in southwest Iowa has cases in late July, while it was reported earlier in other Iowa counties as well.

The growing degree days might have gotten a little hot, but Jorgenson said he will be chopping silage for his livestock operation about 10 days ahead of schedule.

Jorgenson doesn't anticipate a record crop, but he said he expects the county will come in close to the Annual Production History (APH).

"There are going to be a lot of APH-type of crop, maybe 5% over is going to catch a lot of it, but I don't think we're looking at those super, record-type yields," he said. "It's going to be good, but not super high."

DTN projects Fremont County to hit an average corn yield of 205.6 bpa and soybean yield of 61.0 bpa.

"You are going to know the differences coming up in 60 days of the areas that probably got a little extra shower that you weren't expecting," Jorgenson said. "We're going to think it's the hybrids or varieties, but the differences are going to be where you got rain and where you didn't."

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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